Adverse and serious adverse events incidence of pharmacological interventions for managing chronic and episodic migraine in adults: a systematic review.

Background: Migraine is the second most common prevalent disorder worldwide and is a top cause of disability with a substantial economic burden. Many preventive migraine medications have notable side effects that affect different body organs. Method: We systematically searched for published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using terms for migraine/headache and preventive medications. Using eligibility criteria, two reviewers independently assessed the articles. Cochrane risk-of-bias tool was applied to assess the quality of the studies. Data were classified by system organ class (SOC). Results: Thirty-two RCTs with 21 780 participants met the eligibility criteria for the incidence of adverse events (AEs). Additionally, 33 RCTs with 22 615 participants were included to synthesise the incidence of serious AEs (SAEs). The percentage of attributed AEs and SAEs to each SOC for 10 preventive drugs with different dosing regimens was calculated. Amitriptyline and topiramate had a higher incidence of nervous system disorders; Topiramate was also associated with a higher incidence of psychiatric disorders. All drugs showed a certain incidence of infections and infestations, with Onabotulinumtoxin A (BTA) having the lowest rate. BTA had a higher incidence of musculoskeletal disorders than the other drugs. Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) such as fremanezumab and galcanezumab were linked to more general disorders and administration site conditions than other drugs. Conclusion: Notably, the observed harm to SOCs varies among these preventive drugs. We suggest conducting head-to-head RCTs to evaluate the safety profile of oral medications, BTA, and CGRP MAbs in episodic and/or chronic migraine populations. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021265993.

Competing treatments for migraine: a headache for decision-makers.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is the world's second most common disabling disorder, affecting 15% of UK adults and costing the UK over £1.5 billion per year. Several costly new drugs have been approved by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of drugs used to treat adults with chronic migraine. METHODS: We did a systematic review of placebo-controlled trials of preventive drugs for chronic migraine. We then assessed the cost-effectiveness of the currently prescribable drugs included in the review: Onabotulinum toxin A (BTA), Eptinezumab (100mg or 300mg), Fremanezumab (monthly or quarterly dose), Galcanezumab or Topiramate, each compared to placebo, and we evaluated them jointly. We developed a Markov (state-transition) model with a three-month cycle length to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the different medications from a UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. We used a two-year time horizon with a starting age of 30 years for the patient cohort. We estimated transition probabilities based on monthly headache days using a network meta-analysis (NMA) developed by us, and from published literature. We obtained costs from published sources and applied discount rates of 3.5% to both costs and outcomes. RESULTS: Deterministic results suggest Topiramate was the least costly option and generated slightly more QALYs than the placebo, whereas Eptinezumab 300mg was the more costly option and generated the most QALYs. After excluding dominated options, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between BTA and Topiramate was £68,000 per QALY gained and the ICER between Eptinezumab 300mg and BTA was not within plausible cost-effectiveness thresholds. The cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier showed that Topiramate is the most cost-effective medication for any amount the decision maker is willing-to-pay per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Among the various prophylactic medications for managing chronic migraine, only Topiramate was within typical cost-effectiveness threshold ranges. Further research is needed, ideally an economic evaluation alongside a randomised trial, to compare these newer, expensive CGRP MAbs with the cheaper oral medications.

Clinical effectiveness of pharmacological interventions for managing chronic migraine in adults: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic migraine can be a profoundly disabling disorder that may be treated with preventive medications. However, uncertainty remains as to which preventive medication is the most effective. We present a network meta-analysis to determine the effectiveness and rank of preventive drugs for chronic migraine in adults. METHODS: We identified, reviewed, and extracted data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of preventive drugs for chronic migraine with at least 200 participants. Data were analysed using network meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We included 12 RCTs of six medications (Eptinezumab, Erenumab, Fremanezumab, Galcanezumab, Onabotulinumtoxin A, and Topiramate) compared to placebo or each other. All drugs effectively reduced monthly headache and migraine days compared with placebo. The most effective drug for monthly headache days was Eptinezumab 300mg, with a mean difference of -2.46 days, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): -3.23 to -1.69. On the Surface Under the Cumulative Ranking Area (SUCRA) analysis, the probability that Eptinezumab 300mg was ranked highest was 0.82. For monthly migraine days, the most effective medication was Fremanezumab-monthly, with a mean difference: -2.77 days, 95% CrI: -3.36 to -2.17, and 0.98 probability of being ranked the highest. All included drugs, except Topiramate, improved headache-related quality of life. No eligible studies were identified for the other common preventive oral medications such as Amitriptyline, Candesartan, and Propranolol. The main reasons were that the studies did not define chronic migraine, were undertaken before the definition of chronic migraine, or were too small. INTERPRETATION: All six medications were more effective than the placebo on monthly headache and migraine days. The absolute differences in the number of headache/migraine days are, at best, modest. No evidence was found to determine the relative effectiveness of the six included drugs with other oral preventive medications. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (number CRD42021265990).

Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Daily calcium supplements are recommended for pregnant women from 20 weeks' gestation to prevent pre-eclampsia in populations with low dietary calcium intake. We aimed to improve understanding of barriers and facilitators for calcium supplement intake during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia. DESIGN: Mixed-method systematic review, with confidence assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations-Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research approach. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and EMBASE (via Ovid), CINAHL and Global Health (via EBSCO) and grey literature databases were searched up to 17 September 2022. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included primary qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods studies reporting implementation or use of calcium supplements during pregnancy, excluding calcium fortification and non-primary studies. No restrictions were imposed on settings, language or publication date. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We analysed the qualitative data using thematic synthesis, and quantitative findings were thematically mapped to qualitative findings. We then mapped the results to behavioural change frameworks to identify barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: Eighteen reports from nine studies were included in this review. Women reported barriers to consuming calcium supplements included limited knowledge about calcium supplements and pre-eclampsia, fears and experiences of side effects, varying preferences for tablets, dosing, working schedules, being away from home and taking other supplements. Receiving information regarding pre-eclampsia and safety of calcium supplement use from reliable sources, alternative dosing options, supplement reminders, early antenatal care, free supplements and support from families and communities were reported as facilitators. Healthcare providers felt that consistent messaging about benefits and risks of calcium, training, and ensuring adequate staffing and calcium supply is available would be able to help them in promoting calcium. CONCLUSION: Relevant stakeholders should consider the identified barriers and facilitators when formulating interventions and policies on calcium supplement use. These review findings can inform implementation to ensure effective and equitable provision and scale-up of calcium interventions. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021239143.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies.

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease. Methods: Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis. Results: A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy. Future work and limitations: There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions. Conclusions: The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future. Study registration: The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836. Funding: This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

This study aimed to explore the potential effects of various policy changes on the prevention of heart disease. By searching two large medical databases, we identified studies that employed computer models to estimate the impact of these policies on heart disease rates. In total, 54 studies matched our criteria. These studies considered a diverse range of policy interventions. Some delved into food and nutrition, investigating aspects like unhealthy food taxes, healthy food subsidies, stricter food regulations, and nutritional assistance programs. Others examined the impact of policies targeting tobacco and alcohol, encompassing smoking bans, nationwide tobacco control measures, and alcohol taxation. Further policies assessed included routine health checkups, global health goals, and measures to enhance air quality. One significant challenge lies in the varied approaches and models each study employed, making direct comparisons difficult. Furthermore, there's a gap in understanding how these policies might influence one another, as the studies did not consider potential interactions between them. While these policies show promise in the computer models, more comprehensive research is needed to fully appreciate their combined and long-term effects on heart health in real-world scenarios. As of now, we recognize the potential of these interventions, but further studies will determine their true impact on reducing heart disease rates.

Designing economic evaluations alongside clinical trials in maternal health care: A guide for clinical trial design.

BACKGROUND: Economic evaluations are being conducted with increasing frequency in the maternity care setting, with more randomized controlled trials containing a health economic component. Key emerging criticisms of economic evaluation in maternity care are lack of robust data collection and measurement, inconsistencies in methodology, and lack of adherence to reporting guidelines. METHODS: This article provides a guide to the design of economic evaluations alongside clinical trials in maternal health. We include economic concepts and considerations for the maternity setting and provide examples from the UK and Australia. RESULTS: There are many important considerations for the design of economic evaluations alongside clinical trials. To be effective, researchers must select types of economic evaluation, which align with their study objectives; choose an appropriate evaluation perspective, time horizon, and discount rate; and identify accurate ways to measure and evaluate health outcomes and costs. DISCUSSION: This guide is written for noneconomists and can be used for designing economic evaluations to be conducted as a part of clinical trials. We seek to improve the quality, consistency, and transparency of economic evaluations in maternal health.

Subthreshold micropulse laser versus standard laser for the treatment of central-involving diabetic macular oedema with central retinal thickness of <400µ: a cost-effectiveness analysis from the DIAMONDS trial.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic costs, health-related quality-of-life outcomes and cost-effectiveness of subthreshold micropulse laser (SML) versus standard laser (SL) for the treatment of diabetic macular oedema (DMO) with central retinal thickness (CRT) of <400µ. DESIGN: An economic evaluation was conducted within a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised clinical trial, DIAbetic Macular Oedema aNd Diode Subthreshold. SETTING: 18 UK Hospital Eye Services. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with diabetes and centre involving DMO with CRT<400µ. INTERVENTIONS: Participants (n=266) were randomised 1:1 to receive SML or SL. METHODS: The base-case used an intention-to-treat approach conducted from a UK National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services (PSS) perspective. Costs (2019-2020 prices) were collected prospectively over the 2-year follow-up period. A bivariate regression of costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with multiple imputation of missing data, was conducted to estimate the incremental cost per QALY gained and the incremental net monetary benefit of SML in comparison to SL. Sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty and heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness estimates. RESULTS: One participant in the SL arm withdrew consent for data to be used; data from the remaining 265 participants were included in analyses. Mean (SE) NHS and PSS costs over 24 months were £735.09 (£111.85) in the SML arm vs £1099.70 (£195.40) in the SL arm (p=0.107). Mean (SE) QALY estimates were 1.493 (0.024) vs 1.485 (0.020), respectively (p=0.780), giving an insignificant difference of 0.008 QALYs. The probability SML is cost-effective at a threshold of £20 000 per QALY was 76%. CONCLUSIONS: There were no statistically significant differences in EQ-5D-5L scores or costs between SML and SL. Given these findings and the fact that SML does not burn the retina, unlike SL and has equivalent efficacy to SL, it may be preferred for the treatment of people with DMO with CRT<400µ. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: ISRCTN17742985; NCT03690050.

Economic burden of chronic migraine in OECD countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Chronic migraine (CM) is a significant neurological condition affecting a substantial portion of the global population. The economic burden of CM includes both direct healthcare costs and indirect costs resulting from productivity losses and intangible impacts on patients' quality of life. However, there is limited research that comprehensively evaluates all cost components associated with CM, highlighting the need for a systematic review. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search in databases including MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL to identify studies estimating the cost of illness of chronic migraines. The search was restricted to English language articles published from inception to October 2021, and only findings from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries were included. Methodology features and key findings were extracted from the studies, and reported costs were converted to GBP for cross-country comparisons. RESULTS: Thirteen cost-of-illness studies on CM from various OECD countries were included in this review. The studies demonstrated substantial variations in monetary estimates, but consistently highlighted the considerable economic burden of CM. Direct costs, particularly hospitalisation and medication expenses, were identified as the highest contributors. However, indirect costs, such as productivity losses due to absenteeism and presenteeism, were often underexplored in the reviewed studies. Additionally, intangible costs related to emotional and social impacts on patients were largely overlooked. CONCLUSION: Chronic migraine imposes a significant economic burden on individuals, healthcare systems, and society. Policymakers and healthcare stakeholders should consider both direct and indirect cost components, as well as intangible costs, in developing targeted strategies for effective CM management and resource allocation. Further research focusing on comprehensive cost assessments and sensitivity analyses is needed to enhance the understanding of CM's economic implications and inform evidence-based healthcare policy decisions. Addressing these research gaps can alleviate the economic burden of CM and improve patient outcomes.

Calcium supplementation to prevent pre-eclampsia: protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis, network meta-analysis and health economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Low dietary calcium intake is a risk factor for pre-eclampsia, a major contributor to maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity worldwide. Calcium supplementation can prevent pre-eclampsia in women with low dietary calcium. However, the optimal dose and timing of calcium supplementation are not known. We plan to undertake an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomised trials to determine the effects of various calcium supplementation regimens in preventing pre-eclampsia and its complications and rank these by effectiveness. We also aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of calcium supplementation to prevent pre-eclampsia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will identify randomised trials on calcium supplementation before and during pregnancy by searching major electronic databases including Embase, CINAHL, MEDLINE, CENTRAL, PubMed, Scopus, AMED, LILACS, POPLINE, AIM, IMSEAR, ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, without language restrictions, from inception to February 2022. Primary researchers of the identified trials will be invited to join the International Calcium in Pregnancy Collaborative Network and share their IPD. We will check each study's IPD for consistency with the original authors before standardising and harmonising the data. We will perform a series of one-stage and two-stage IPD random-effect meta-analyses to obtain the summary intervention effects on pre-eclampsia with 95% CIs and summary treatment-covariate interactions (maternal risk status, dietary intake, timing of intervention, daily dose of calcium prescribed and total intake of calcium). Heterogeneity will be summarised using tau2, I2 and 95% prediction intervals for effect in a new study. Sensitivity analysis to explore robustness of statistical and clinical assumptions will be carried out. Minor study effects (potential publication bias) will be investigated using funnel plots. A decision analytical model for use in low-income and middle-income countries will assess the cost-effectiveness of calcium supplementation to prevent pre-eclampsia. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approvals are required. We will store the data in a secure repository in an anonymised format. The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021231276.

Diabetic Macular Edema and Diode Subthreshold Micropulse Laser: A Randomized Double-Masked Noninferiority Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: To determine clinical effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of subthreshold micropulse laser (SML), compared with standard laser (SL), for diabetic macular edema (DME) with central retinal thickness (CRT) < 400 µm. DESIGN: Pragmatic, multicenter, allocation-concealed, double-masked, randomized, noninferiority trial. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with center-involved DME < 400 µm and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) of > 24 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letters in one/both eyes. METHODS: Randomization 1:1 to 577 nm SML or SL treatment. Retreatments were allowed. Rescue with intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapies or steroids was permitted if 10 or more ETDRS letter loss occurred, CRT increased > 400 µm, or both. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was mean change in BCVA in the study eye at 24 months (noninferiority margin 5 ETDRS letters). Secondary outcomes were mean change from baseline to month 24 in binocular BCVA; CRT and mean deviation of Humphrey 10-2 visual field in the study eye; percentage meeting driving standards; EuroQoL EQ-5D-5L, 25-item National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ-25), and Vision and Quality of Life Index (VisQoL) scores; cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained; adverse effects; and number of laser and rescue treatments. RESULTS: The study recruited fully (n = 266); 87% of SML-treated and 86% of SL-treated patients had primary outcome data. Mean ± standard deviation BCVA change from baseline to month 24 was -2.43 ± 8.20 letters and -0.45 ± 6.72 letters in the SML and SL groups, respectively. Subthreshold micropulse laser therapy was deemed not only noninferior but also equivalent to SL therapy because the 95% confidence interval (CI; -3.9 to -0.04 letters) lay wholly within both upper and lower margins of the permitted maximum difference (5 ETDRS letters). No statistically significant difference was found in binocular BCVA (0.32 ETDRS letters; 95% CI, -0.99 to 1.64 ETDRS letters; P = 0.63); CRT (-0.64 µm; 95% CI, -14.25 to 12.98 µm; P = 0.93); mean deviation of the visual field (0.39 decibels (dB); 95% CI, -0.23 to 1.02 dB; P = 0.21); meeting driving standards (percentage point difference, 1.6%; 95% CI, -25.3% to 28.5%; P = 0.91); adverse effects (risk ratio, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.06-1.34; P = 0.11); rescue treatments (percentage point difference, -2.8%; 95% CI, -13.1% to 7.5%; P = 0.59); or EQ-5D, NEI-VFQ-25, or VisQoL scores. Number of laser treatments was higher in the SML group (0.48; 95% CI, 0.18-0.79; P = 0.002). Base-case analysis indicated no differences in costs or QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: Subthreshold micropulse laser therapy was equivalent to SL therapy, requiring slightly higher laser treatments.

Supportive Self-Management Program for People With Chronic Headaches and Migraine: A Randomized Controlled Trial and Economic Evaluation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Chronic headache disorders are a major cause of pain and disability. Education and supportive self-management approaches could reduce the burden of headache disability. We tested the effectiveness of a group educational and supportive self-management program for people living with chronic headaches. METHODS: This was a pragmatic randomized controlled trial. Participants were aged 18 years or older with chronic migraine or chronic tension-type headache, with or without medication overuse headache. We primarily recruited from general practices. Participants were assigned to either a 2-day group education and self-management program, a one-to-one nurse interview, and telephone support or to usual care plus relaxation material. The primary outcome was headache related-quality of life using the Headache Impact Test (HIT)-6 at 12 months. The primary analysis used intention-to-treat principles for participants with migraine and both baseline and 12-month HIT-6 data. RESULTS: Between April 2017 and March 2019, we randomized 736 participants. Because only 9 participants just had tension-type headache, our main analyses were on the 727 participants with migraine. Of them, 376 were allocated to the self-management intervention and 351 to usual care. Data from 586 (81%) participants were analyzed for primary outcome. There was no between-group difference in HIT-6 (adjusted mean difference = -0.3, 95% CI -1.23 to 0.67) or headache days (0.9, 95% CI -0.29 to 2.05) at 12 months. The Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study intervention generated incremental adjusted costs of £268 (95% CI, £176-£377) (USD383 [95% CI USD252-USD539]) and incremental adjusted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 0.031 (95% CI -0.005 to 0.063). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £8,617 (USD12,322) per QALY gained. DISCUSSION: These findings conclusively show a lack of benefit for quality of life or monthly headache days from a brief group education and supportive self-management program for people living with chronic migraine or chronic tension-type headache with episodic migraine. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: Registered on the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number registry, ISRCTN79708100 16th December 2015 doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN79708100. The first enrollment was April 24, 2017. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that a brief group education and self-management program does not increase the probability of improvement in headache-related quality of life in people with chronic migraine.

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of the study was to guide researchers and commissioners of cardiovascular disease preventative services towards possible cost-effective interventions by reviewing published economic analyses of interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, conducted for or within the UK NHS. METHODS: In January 2021, electronic searches of MEDLINE and Embase were carried out to find economic evaluations of cardiovascular disease preventative services. We included fully published economic evaluations (including economic models) conducted alongside randomised controlled trials of any form of intervention that was aimed at the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, including, but not limited to, drugs, diet, physical activity and public health. Full systematic review methods were used with predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria, data extraction and formal quality appraisal [using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist and the framework for the quality assessment of decision analytic modelling by Philips et al. (Philips Z, Ginnelly L, Sculpher M, Claxton K, Golder S, Riemsma R, et al. Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. Health Technol Assess 2004;8(36)]. RESULTS: Of 4351 non-duplicate citations, eight articles met the review's inclusion criteria. The eight articles focused on health promotion (n = 3), lipid-lowering medicine (n = 4) and blood pressure-lowering medication (n = 1). The majority of the populations in each study had at least one risk factor for cardiovascular disease or were at high risk of cardiovascular disease. For the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, all strategies were cost-effective at a threshold of £25,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, except increasing motivational interviewing in addition to other behaviour change strategies. Where the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained was reported, interventions varied from dominant (i.e. less expensive and more effective than the comparator intervention) to £55,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. FUTURE WORK AND LIMITATIONS: We found few health economic analyses of interventions for primary cardiovascular disease prevention conducted within the last decade. Future economic assessments should be undertaken and presented in accordance with best practices so that future reviews may make clear recommendations to improve health policy. CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult to establish direct comparisons or draw firm conclusions because of the uncertainty and heterogeneity among studies. However, interventions conducted for or within the UK NHS were likely to be cost-effective in people at increased risk of cardiovascular disease when compared with usual care or no intervention. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Increasing comprehensiveness and reducing workload in a systematic review of complex interventions using automated machine learning.

BACKGROUND: As part of our ongoing systematic review of complex interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, we have developed and evaluated automated machine-learning classifiers for title and abstract screening. The aim was to develop a high-performing algorithm comparable to human screening. METHODS: We followed a three-phase process to develop and test an automated machine learning-based classifier for screening potential studies on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We labelled a total of 16,611 articles during the first phase of the project. In the second phase, we used the labelled articles to develop a machine learning-based classifier. After that, we examined the performance of the classifiers in correctly labelling the papers. We evaluated the performance of the five deep-learning models [i.e. parallel convolutional neural network ( CNN ), stacked CNN , parallel-stacked CNN , recurrent neural network ( RNN ) and CNN-RNN]. The models were evaluated using recall, precision and work saved over sampling at no less than 95% recall. RESULTS: We labelled a total of 16,611 articles, of which 676 (4.0%) were tagged as 'relevant' and 15,935 (96%) were tagged as 'irrelevant'. The recall ranged from 51.9% to 96.6%. The precision ranged from 64.6% to 99.1%. The work saved over sampling ranged from 8.9% to as high as 92.1%. The best-performing model was parallel CNN , yielding a 96.4% recall, as well as 99.1% precision, and a potential workload reduction of 89.9%. FUTURE WORK AND LIMITATIONS: We used words from the title and the abstract only. More work needs to be done to look into possible changes in performance, such as adding features such as full document text. The approach might also not be able to be used for other complex systematic reviews on different topics. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that machine learning has the potential to significantly aid the labour-intensive screening of abstracts in systematic reviews of complex interventions. Future research should concentrate on enhancing the classifier system and determining how it can be integrated into the systematic review workflow. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Standard threshold laser versus subthreshold micropulse laser for adults with diabetic macular oedema: the DIAMONDS non-inferiority RCT.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommends macular laser to treat diabetic macular oedema with a central retinal subfield thickness of < 400 µm on optical coherence tomography. The DIAMONDS (DIAbetic Macular Oedema aNd Diode Subthreshold micropulse laser) trial compared standard threshold macular laser with subthreshold micropulse laser to treat diabetic macular oedema suitable for macular laser. OBJECTIVES: Determining the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of subthreshold micropulse laser compared with standard threshold macular laser to treat diabetic macular oedema with a central retinal subfield thickness of < 400 µm. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre, allocation-concealed, double-masked, randomised, non-inferiority, clinical trial. SETTING: Hospital eye services in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with diabetes and centre-involving diabetic macular oedema with a central retinal subfield thickness of < 400 µm, and a visual acuity of > 24 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters (Snellen equivalent > 20/320) in one/both eyes. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised 1 : 1 to receive 577 nm subthreshold micropulse laser or standard threshold macular laser (e.g. argon laser, frequency-doubled neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet 532 nm laser); laser treatments could be repeated as needed. Rescue therapy with intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapies or steroids was allowed if a loss of ≥ 10 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters between visits occurred and/or central retinal subfield thickness increased to > 400 µm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the mean change in best-corrected visual acuity in the study eye at 24 months (non-inferiority margin 5 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters). Secondary outcomes included the mean change from baseline to 24 months in the following: binocular best-corrected visual acuity; central retinal subfield thickness; the mean deviation of the Humphrey 10-2 visual field in the study eye; the percentage of people meeting driving standards; and the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire - 25 and Vision and Quality of Life Index scores. Other secondary outcomes were the cost per quality-adjusted life-years gained, adverse effects, number of laser treatments and additional rescue treatments. RESULTS: The DIAMONDS trial recruited fully (n = 266); 87% of participants in the subthreshold micropulse laser group and 86% of participants in the standard threshold macular laser group had primary outcome data. Groups were balanced regarding baseline characteristics. Mean best-corrected visual acuity change in the study eye from baseline to month 24 was -2.43 letters (standard deviation 8.20 letters) in the subthreshold micropulse laser group and -0.45 letters (standard deviation 6.72 letters) in the standard threshold macular laser group. Subthreshold micropulse laser was deemed to be not only non-inferior but also equivalent to standard threshold macular laser as the 95% confidence interval (-3.9 to -0.04 letters) lay wholly within both the upper and lower margins of the permitted maximum difference (5 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters). There was no statistically significant difference between groups in any of the secondary outcomes investigated with the exception of the number of laser treatments performed, which was slightly higher in the subthreshold micropulse laser group (mean difference 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 0.79; p = 0.002). Base-case analysis indicated no significant difference in the cost per quality-adjusted life-years between groups. FUTURE WORK: A trial in people with ≥ 400 µm diabetic macular oedema comparing anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy alone with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy and macular laser applied at the time when central retinal subfield thickness has decreased to < 400 µm following anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections would be of value because it could reduce the number of injections and, subsequently, costs and risks and inconvenience to patients. LIMITATIONS: The majority of participants enrolled had poorly controlled diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Subthreshold micropulse laser was equivalent to standard threshold macular laser but required a slightly higher number of laser treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as EudraCT 2015-001940-12, ISRCTN17742985 and NCT03690050. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 50. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The retina is a layer at the back of the eye. Its centre is called the macula and is responsible for central vision. Some people with diabetes develop diabetic macular oedema. In diabetic macular oedema fluid leaks from retinal blood vessels and builds up at the macula, resulting in sight loss. Diabetic macular oedema can be mild or severe; this can be determined measuring the thickness of the macula, which is measured in micrometres (µm). One micrometre is one thousandth of a millimetre. In mild diabetic macular oedema, the thickness of the macula increases, but is less than 400 µm. Patients with mild diabetic macular oedema can be treated with a laser and there are two laser types. The standard threshold macular laser has been available for many years. It clears the diabetic macular oedema but produces a 'burn' in the retina. The subthreshold micropulse laser is newer. It does not produce a burn but also clears the diabetic macular oedema. The lack of a burn, however, has led to doubts about whether or not this laser works as well as the standard threshold macular laser because 'no burn' was taken to mean 'less benefit'. These doubts led to our establishing the DIAMONDS (DIAbetic Macular Oedema aNd Diode Subthreshold micropulse laser) trial, which compared these two lasers for people with mild diabetic macular oedema. A total of 266 people suitable for either laser joined the study at 16 NHS hospitals across the UK; 133 received standard threshold macular laser and 133 received subthreshold micropulse laser. The choice of laser was determined by chance. The DIAMONDS trial found that the subthreshold micropulse laser was as good as the standard threshold macular laser (i.e. 'clinically equivalent') in terms of improving people's vision, reducing macula thickness, allowing people to meet driving standards and maintaining their quality of life, both in general terms and for vision in particular. There was a small increase (less than one session on average per person) in the number of laser treatment sessions needed with subthreshold micropulse laser. The costs of both laser treatments were about the same.

Induction of labour for predicted macrosomia: study protocol for the 'Big Baby' randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Large-for-gestational age (LGA) fetuses have an increased risk of shoulder dystocia. This can lead to adverse neonatal outcomes and death. Early induction of labour in women with a fetus suspected to be macrosomic may mitigate the risk of shoulder dystocia. The Big Baby Trial aims to find if induction of labour at 38+0-38+4 weeks' gestation, in pregnancies with suspected LGA fetuses, reduces the incidence of shoulder dystocia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Big Baby Trial is a multicentre, prospective, individually randomised controlled trial of induction of labour at 38+0 to 38+4 weeks' gestation vs standard care as per each hospital trust (median gestation of delivery 39+4) among women whose fetuses have an estimated fetal weight >90th customised centile according to ultrasound scan at 35+0 to 38+0 weeks' gestation. There is a parallel cohort study for women who decline randomisation because they opt for induction, expectant management or caesarean section. Up to 4000 women will be recruited and randomised to induction of labour or to standard care. The primary outcome is the incidence of shoulder dystocia; assessed by an independent expert group, blind to treatment allocation, from delivery records. Secondary outcomes include birth trauma, fractures, haemorrhage, caesarean section rate and length of inpatient stay. The main trial is ongoing, following an internal pilot study. A qualitative reporting, health economic evaluation and parallel process evaluation are included. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study received a favourable opinion from the South West-Cornwall and Plymouth Health Research Authority on 23/03/2018 (IRAS project ID 229163). Study results will be reported in the National Institute for Health Research journal library and published in an open access peer-reviewed journal. We will plan dissemination events for key stakeholders. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18229892.

Mapping between headache specific and generic preference-based health-related quality of life measures.

BACKGROUND: The Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) and the Chronic Headache Questionnaire (CH-QLQ) measure headache-related quality of life but are not preference-based and therefore cannot be used to generate health utilities for cost-effectiveness analyses. There are currently no established algorithms for mapping between the HIT-6 or CH-QLQ and preference-based health-related quality-of-life measures for chronic headache population. METHODS: We developed algorithms for generating EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities from the HIT-6 and the CHQLQ using both direct and response mapping approaches. A multi-stage model selection process was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the models. The estimated mapping algorithms were derived to generate UK tariffs and was validated using the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS) trial dataset. RESULTS: Several models were developed that reasonably accurately predict health utilities in this context. The best performing model for predicting EQ-5D-5L utility scores from the HIT-6 scores was a Censored Least Absolute Deviations (CLAD) (1) model that only included the HIT-6 score as the covariate (mean squared error (MSE) 0.0550). The selected model for CH-QLQ to EQ-5D-5L was the CLAD (3) model that included CH-QLQ summary scores, age, and gender, squared terms and interaction terms as covariates (MSE 0.0583). The best performing model for predicting SF-6D utility scores from the HIT-6 scores was the CLAD (2) model that included the HIT-6 score and age and gender as covariates (MSE 0.0102). The selected model for CH-QLQ to SF-6D was the OLS (2) model that included CH-QLQ summary scores, age, and gender as covariates (MSE 0.0086). CONCLUSION: The developed algorithms enable the estimation of EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities from two headache-specific questionnaires where preference-based health-related quality of life data are missing. However, further work is needed to help define the best approach to measuring health utilities in headache studies.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of pharmacological treatments for adults with chronic migraine.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic migraine is a common neurovascular brain disorder with substantial economic costs. We performed a systematic review to identify economic evaluations of pharmacological treatments for adults with chronic migraine. METHODS: We undertook systematic literature searches using terms for migraine/headache and prophylactic drug interventions, combined with economic/cost terms where appropriate. Using inclusion and exclusion criteria, two reviewers independently assessed the citations and abstracts, and full-text articles were retrieved. A review of study characteristics and methodological quality was assessed. RESULTS: Sixteen citations met the inclusion criteria and were model-based cost-utility studies evaluating: Botox (n = 6); Erenumab (n = 8); Fremanezumab (n = 2); and Galcanezumab (n = 1) as the main treatment. They varied in their use of comparators, perspective, and model type. Botox was cost-effective compared to placebo with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranging between £15,028 (€17,720) and £16,598 (€19,572). Erenumab, Fremanezumab and Galcanezumab when compared to Botox, was associated with ICERs ranging between £59,712 ($81,080) and £182,128 (€218,870), with the ICERs above the most common willingness-to-pay thresholds (WTPs). But they were cost-effective within the commonly used WTPs among the population for whom the previous treatments including Botox were failed. Three studies compared the cost-effectiveness of Erenumab against the placebo and found that Erenumab was dominant. All studies performed sensitivity analyses to check the robustness of their results. None of the findings from the included articles were generalisable and none of the included studies fulfilled all the criteria mentioned in the CHEERS 2022 reporting checklist and Phillips's checklist for economic models. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence to support the cost-effectiveness of pharmacological treatments of chronic migraine in the adult population using Botox and Erenumab were identified. Our findings suggest that both Botox and Erenumab, are cost-effective compared to placebo; although Erenumab had more incremental economic benefits compared to Botox, the ICERs were above the most common willingness-to-pay thresholds. Hence, Erenumab might be an acceptable treatment for chronic migraine for patients whom other treatments such as Botox do not work. Further research is needed to help characterise the data to adequately structure and parameterise an economic model to support decision-making for chronic migraine therapies.

A prospective randomised controlled mixed-methods pilot study of home monitoring in adults with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Home monitoring (HM) is able to detect more pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) than routine care (RC) in individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF), but there is currently no evidence for benefits in health outcomes. Patient experiences of using HM and a health economics assessment have not been rigorously assessed to date. This study aimed to assess the effects of HM on hospital admissions, quality of life, antibiotic requirements, exacerbation frequency, lung function, nutritional outcomes, anxiety, depression, costs and health outcomes, as well as the qualitative effects on the patient experience. METHODS: This randomised controlled mixed-methods pilot study recruited CF adults cared for in one large regional CF centre. Participants were randomly allocated 1:1 to the intervention cohort [twice-weekly HM of symptoms measured by the Cystic Fibrosis Respiratory Symptom Diary - Chronic Respiratory Infection Symptom Score (CFRSD-CRISS) and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)] or a control cohort (routine clinical care) for the 12-month study period. Measurements were recorded at study visits at baseline, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Spirometry, body weight, comorbidities, medications, hospital inpatient days, courses of antibiotics (oral and intravenous) and PEx (defined by the modified Fuchs criteria) were recorded at each study visit. Health status, capability and cost-effectiveness were measured at each study visit by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), the ICEpop CAPability measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), EuroQol 5 dimensions (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire and an adapted resource use questionnaire. The patient experience of HM was assessed by semi-structured qualitative interviews at baseline and 12 months. RESULTS: Eighty-eight participants were recruited, with 44 (50%) randomised to receive HM and 44 (50%) randomised to receive RC. Patient hospital inpatient bed days per annum and overall health-related quality of life were similar between the groups. Protocol-defined PEx requiring intravenous and oral antibiotics were detected more frequently in the HM group, with no other differences between the groups in the secondary outcomes. The total mean National Health Service (NHS) costs were approximately £1500 more per patient for the RC arm than the HM group. The qualitative analysis demonstrated that the patient experience of HM was generally positive and overall the intervention was well accepted. CONCLUSION: The findings of this trial confirm that HM is effective in detecting PEx in adults with CF. There were no significant differences in hospital inpatient bed days and overall health-related quality of life between the groups. Despite the cost of the HM equipment and the salary of the research fellow to respond to the results, health economics analysis suggests the intervention was less expensive than RC. HM was generally well accepted, with most participants reporting that it resulted in them feeling more empowered and reassured. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study protocol was registered with Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02994706) on 16 July 2014 and published in a peer reviewed journal.Data from this trial has been presented in abstract form at the ECFS Conference in Lyon in September 2020.

The FEED1 trial: protocol for a randomised controlled trial of full milk feeds versus intravenous fluids with gradual feeding for preterm infants (30-33 weeks gestational age).

BACKGROUND: In the UK, approximately 8% of live births are preterm (before 37 weeks gestation), more than 90% of whom are born between 30 and 36 weeks, forming the largest proportion of a neonatal units' workload. Neonatologists are cautious in initiating full milk feeds for preterm infants due to fears of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC). There is now evidence to dispute this fear. Small studies have shown that feeding preterm infants full milk feeds enterally from birth could result in a shorter length of hospital stay, which is important to parents, clinicians and NHS services without increasing the risk of NEC. This trial aims to investigate whether full milk feeds initiated in the first 24 h after birth reduces the length of hospital stay in comparison to introduction of gradual milk feeding with IV fluids or parenteral nutrition. METHODS: FEED1 is a multi-centre, open, parallel group, randomised, controlled superiority trial of full milk feeds initiated on the day of birth versus gradual milk feeds for infants born at 30+0 to 32+6 (inclusive) weeks gestation. Recruitment will take place in around 40 UK neonatal units. Mothers will be randomised 1:1 to full milk feeds, starting at 60 ml/kg day, or gradual feeds, as per usual local practice. Mother's expressed breast milk will always be the first choice of milk, though will likely be supplemented with formula or donor breast milk in the first few days. Feeding data will be collected until full milk feeds are achieved (≥ 140 ml/kg/day for 3 consecutive days). The primary outcome is length of infant hospital stay. Additional data will be collected 6 weeks post-discharge. Follow-up at 2 years (corrected gestational age) is planned. The sample size is 2088 infants to detect a between group difference in length of stay of 2 days. Accounting for multiple births, this requires 1700 women to be recruited. Primary analysis will compare the length of hospital stay between groups, adjusting for minimisation variables and accounting for multiple births. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide high-quality evidence on feeding practices for preterm infants. Full milk feeds from day of birth could result in infants being discharged sooner. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN89654042 . Prospectively registered on 23 September 2019: ISRCTN is a primary registry of the WHO ICTRP network, and all items from the WHO Trial Registration dataset are included.